UPDATES ON AUG 28 2008

AUG 28 THURSDAY

Euro Rises for Second Day on Speculation ECB Won't Lower Rates .

The euro rose against the dollar for a second day on speculation

the region's interest-rate advantage over the U.S. will draw

investors after a European Central Bank official signaled a

cut in borrowing costs is unlikely.

The euro rose to $1.4778 at 7:18 a.m. in London from $1.4727

yesterday in New York. The currency traded at 161.05 yen

from 161.27. Against the pound, it appreciated 0.3 percent

to 80.49 pence, near a record high of 80.99 pence on

April 16.

Traders reduced bets that the central bank will cut its 4.25

percent main refinancing rate next year. The implied yield

on the Euribor futures contract expiring in September 2009

rose 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 4.43 percent

yesterday.

Crude oil rose for a fourth day to reach $119.10 a barrel on

forecasts Tropical Storm Gustav will strengthen as it enters

the Gulf of Mexico, home to 26 percent of U.S. production.

The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil had a correlation of

0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Declines in the dollar may be limited before revisions to the

second-quarter gross domestic product report from the

Commerce Department today. The U.S. economy

expanded an annualized 2.7 percent, faster than

preliminary data showing 1.9 percent growth, according

to a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists.

The Dollar Index traded on ICE Futures in New York declined

0.4 percent to 76.779 from 77.051 late in New York yesterday.

It reached an eight-month high of 77.619 on Aug. 26.

UPDATES ON AUG 27 2008

AUG 27 WEDNESDAY

Dollar Falls on Speculation Reports to Show Flagging Spending .


The dollar fell from a six-month high against the euro

and dropped versus the yen on speculation weakening

U.S. business and consumer spending will delay a Federal

Reserve interest-rate increase.

The greenback retreated from a two-year high against the

British pound as economists forecast U.S. data this week

will show declines in durable goods orders and slowing

consumption. The Australian dollar rebounded from

an 11-month low as rising Asian stocks gave investors

confidence to buy higher-yielding assets overseas.

The dollar declined to $1.4685 per euro at 8:14 a.m. in

London from $1.4653 in New York yesterday, when it

touched $1.4571, the strongest since Feb. 14. The dollar

fell to 109.23 yen from 109.60. The euro was at 160.43

yen from 160.64 yesterday. The dollar slid to $1.8409

versus the pound from $1.84. It rose yesterday to $1.8331,

its highest since July 2006.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 22 percent

chance that the Fed will increase its 2 percent target rate

for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter

-percentage point at a Dec. 16 meeting, compared with

70 percent odds a month ago. Policy makers next meet

Sept. 16 .

Bookings for U.S. goods made to last several years were

unchanged in July, compared with a gain of 0.8 percent

in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of

economists before a Commerce Department report at

8:30 a.m. today in Washington. A separate report on

Aug. 29 may show personal spending rose 0.2 percent,

less than half the 0.6 percent gain in June, according

to a separate survey.

Gains in the euro may be limited by speculation German

inflation slowed this month, reducing pressure on the

European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs.

The ICE futures exchange's Dollar Index, which compares

the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading

partners, was last at 76.880 from 77.251 yesterday.

It rose to 77.413 on Aug. 19, fell to 76.022 on Aug. 21

and then rose yesterday to a second peak at 77.619.

UPDTAES ON AUG 22 008

AUG 22 FRIDAY

Yen Falls Against Dollar as Japan Investors Seek Higher Yields .

The yen fell from a two-week high against the dollar on

speculation Japanese investors took advantage of the

currency's advance to buy higher-yielding assets abroad.

The yen fell to 108.96 per dollar at 1:04 p.m. in Tokyo from

108.43 in New York yesterday. It slid to 162.01 a euro from

161.57. The dollar has fallen 1.4 percent against the yen

this week, the biggest decline since May 9, and yesterday

reached 108.14, the weakest since Aug. 5. It rose to

$1.4869 per euro from $1.4899, paring this week's

drop to 1.2 percent.

The U.S. currency was set for its first weekly loss versus

the euro since July 11 on speculation a deepening housing

recession and a rebound in oil prices will prolong the

nation's economic slump. Bernanke will speak on

financial stability at the Federal Reserve Bank of

Kansas City's annual symposium in Jackson Hole,

Wyoming at 8 a.m. local time.

Crude oil prices surged 4.9 percent yesterday to $121.18

a barrel in New York, the biggest increase since June 6.

The euro- dollar exchange rate and oil had a correlation

of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg

calculations based on their value changes.

The dollar has gained more than 7 percent versus the euro

since touching an all-time low of $1.6038 on July 15 and

appreciated 0.6 percent against the yen this month as

reports showed the European and Japanese economies

shrank in the second quarter.

.

UPDATES ON AUG 21 2008

AUG 21 THURSDAY

Dollar Falls on U.S. Manufacturing Slump, Credit-Market Losses .

The dollar fell against the yen on speculation a manufacturing

industry contraction and credit- market losses will

prompt the Federal Reserve to hold off from raising

interest rates.

The U.S. currency also slid against the euro on concern futures

traders will pare bets on gains in the dollar, which has gained

against all 16 of the most-active currencies this month.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as

commodity prices rallied for a third day, helping boost

the value of the two nations' exports.

The dollar fell to 109.61 yen as of 1:35 p.m. in Tokyo from

109.86 in New York yesterday. It also declined to

$1.4774 per euro from $1.4747 yesterday, when it

climbed 0.2 percent. The euro was at 161.91 yen

from 162.03. It reached 160.87 on Aug. 19, the

lowest level in three months.

The Australian dollar rose to 87.26 U.S. cents from 86.90

cents late in Asia yesterday. New Zealand's dollar

advanced to 71.37 U.S. cents from 70.99 cents.

The U.S. currency has gained 7.7 percent versus the euro

since touching an all-time low of $1.6038 on July 15 and

appreciated 1.6 percent this month against the yen. The

greenback advanced as reports showed the European

and Japanese economies shrank in the second quarter

and crude oil fell more than 20 percent from the record

$147.27 a barrel reached July 11.

Futures traders are betting for the first time since March

2007 that the dollar will rise against the euro, yen and British

pound. There were 24,060 more wagers by hedge funds and

other large speculators on a gain in the dollar than on a

decline on Aug. 12, data from the Washington-based

Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed

Aug. 15. A week earlier there were 20,886 more bets

on dollar weakness.

Crude oil today increased 0.7 percent to $116.36 a barrel.

The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil had a correlation

of 0.9 in the past year, according to Bloomberg

calculations based on their value changes. A reading of 1

would mean they move in lockstep.

The U.S. currency also weakened on speculation credit-

market losses in the U.S. will deepen. Fannie Mae and

Freddie Mac shares tumbled in New York trading to

the lowest levels since at least 1990 as speculation

increased that the U.S. Treasury will have to bail

out the mortgage-finance companies.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an 18 percent

chance the U.S. central bank will raise the 2 percent target

rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a

quarter- point by its Dec. 16 meeting, down from 34

percent odds a week earlier. Policy makers next

meet Sept. 16.

UPDATES ON AUG 20 2008

AUG 20 WEDNESDAY

Yen Falls as China Stock Gains Boost Confidence in Carry Trades .

The yen weakened against the dollar as gains in Chinese

stocks encouraged investors to buy higher- yielding

assets funded in Japan.

The currency declined the most against the New Zealand dollar,

a favorite of so-called carry trades, as China's benchmark stock

index jumped the most since April. The British pound traded

near a two-year low on speculation the Bank of England

will say today in minutes of its last policy meeting that it

expects inflation to ease, adding to the case for a cut in

interest rates.

The yen slid to 109.85 per dollar at 1:43 p.m. in Tokyo from

109.72 in New York yesterday. The currency traded at

162.26 per euro, from 162.13. The U.S. currency was at

$1.4772 per euro from $1.4776 yesterday, when it

touched $1.4631, the strongest level since Feb. 20.

The pound was little changed at $1.8672. It slipped to $1.8512 on

Aug. 15, the lowest level since July 2006.

TRADING CALL

TRADING CALL ON 20 AUGUST, 2008 AT 10AM

BUY GUJARAT ALKALI CMP RS.171 FOR SHORT TERM

DELIVERY TARGET RS.184.

UPDATES ON AUG 13 2008

AUG 13 WEDNESDAY

Yen Rises to 12-Week High Against Euro as Carry Trades Pared .

The yen rose to a 12-week high against the euro after a report

showing Japan's economy contracted fanned concern about

a global slump, prompting the nation's investors to cut bets

on higher-yielding assets abroad.

Japan's currency climbed to a two-year high against

New Zealand's dollar and the strongest in four months

versus Australia's, as prices of commodities the two nations

export extended declines. The yen also advanced for a third

day against the U.S. dollar as financial companies led Asian

stocks lower, prompting investors to pare so-called

carry trades.

The dollar may extend its decline versus the yen before a

U.S. government report forecast to show consumers are

spending less. Retail sales dropped 0.1 percent last month,

the first decrease since February, according to the median

forecast of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The Commerce Department is scheduled to release

the report today.

Crude oil last traded at $112.98 a barrel after falling yesterday to

a 14-week low of $112.31. Gold fell for an eighth straight session

and copper dropped to a six-month low in New York trading

yesterday. Gold and crude oil are Australia's third and

fourth most-valuable commodity exports.

U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.9 percent

in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said

July 31. It fell 0.2 percent in the final three months

of last year.

UPDATES ON AUG 11 2008

AUG 11 MONDAY

Dollar Gain Signals Pain as Rally Prompts Exit From Bull Trade .

The dollar posted its biggest gain against the Euro in almost eight years .

But still the U.S currency would be palgued by the nation's slowing

economy, widening budget and trade deficits and negative

inflation-adjusted interest rates.

The dollar strengthened to $1.5005 to the euro last week from

$1.5564 on Aug. 1, the biggest weekly increase on a percentage

basis since January 2005. It surged 2.08 percent on Aug. 8,

touching $1.4998, the most since Sept. 6, 2000, and the

second largest rally since the euro was introduced in 1999.

The number of U.S. home foreclosure filings more than doubled

in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac

Inc., a seller of default data. Government reports this week may

show retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, the first decrease since

February, and the U.S. trade deficit widened in June to $62

billion from $59.8 billion.

Dollar bears point to the Fed's decision on Aug. 5 to leave its

target rate for overnight loans between banks at 2 percent for

a second straight policy meeting. Policy makers said

``downside risks'' to growth remain, while inflation is a

``significant concern.''

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 40 percent chance

the Fed will raise its target rate at least a quarter- percentage

point by year-end and a 90 percent probability of higher

borrowing costs by the end of March.

The 14-day relative strength index fell to 22.31, the lowest since

the euro's debut. A relative strength index level below 30 suggests

a currency's decline is extreme and a reversal may be imminent.

UPDATES ON AUG 8 2008

AUG 8 FRIDAY

Euro Slumps to Five-Month Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates .


The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders

pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest

rates due to a slowing economy.

The euro also fell to a three-week low versus Japan's currency

after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth

will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter.

The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain against the yen in

almost two months as oil dropped 18 percent from a record.

The euro fell to $1.5195, the lowest since March 5, before trading

at $1.5216 at 12:37 p.m. in Tokyo, from $1.5325 late yesterday

in New York. It's set for a fourth weekly decline, the worst losing

streak since May 2007. The euro weakened to 166.92 yen from

167.70 yesterday and 167.55 at the end of last week. It reached

166.55 yen, the lowest since July 17.

The dollar traded at 109.70 yen, from 109.44 late yesterday

and up 1.8 percent from the end of last week. The U.S. currency

reached a seven-month high of 109.88 yen on Aug. 6.

The dollar traded near a seven-month high against the yen as oil

prices declined during the past week to trade at $119.80 a barrel,

on course for a 4.2 percent loss this week and compared with

the record $147.27 set on July 11.

UPDATES ON AUG 6 2008

AUG 6 WEDNESDAY

Euro Rises on Speculation ECB's Trichet to Flag Inflation Risk .

The euro rose, rebounding from a seven-week low against the

dollar, on speculation European Central Bank President

Jean-Claude Trichet will signal higher interest rates may

be needed to combat inflation.

The dollar held near seven-week highs against the yen as oil

tumbled to the lowest level in three months, supporting

economic growth prospects in the world's largest

consumer of the fuel.

Oil has lost more than $28 since touching a record of $147.27

a barrel in New York on July 11 as unprecedented fuel costs

prompted U.S. consumers to limit spending.

The Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged

yesterday at 2 percent, saying ``downside risks'' to

growth remain, while inflation is a ``significant concern.''

Traders yesterday pared bets the Fed will raise interest

rates on Sept. 16. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade

showed a 27 percent chance the Fed would increase its

target lending rate at least a quarter-percentage point,

down from 32 percent on Aug. 4.

The U.S. currency's 25-day moving average versus the yen

has risen since late last month, a bullish signal for the next

few weeks, Tokyo-based Kinouchi said. The dollar may keep

climbing until it reaches 108.76, its 260-day moving average

and a level where sell orders are likely to be placed, he said.

UPDATES ON AUG 5 2008

AUG 5 TUESDAY

Dollar Rises Against Euro on Fed Rate Outlook, Oil Decline .

The dollar rose, approaching a six- week high against the euro,

before a Federal Reserve decision today at which policy

makers may leave interest rates on hold and highlight

concerns about inflation.

The U.S. currency also traded near a seven-week peak versus

the yen after crude oil fell to a 13-week low, helping the world's

largest consumer of the fuel sustain economic growth.

Australia's dollar dropped to a three-month low after

the nation's central bank signaled borrowing costs

may be cut.

The dollar rose to $1.5528 per euro at 1:55 p.m. in Tokyo from

$1.5576 yesterday in New York. It touched $1.5515 on Aug. 1,

the strongest level since June 24. It was at 108.19 yen from

108.27 yen in New York yesterday. It touched a four-month

high of 108.58 yen on June 16.

The dollar advanced against the euro after the U.S. Commerce

Department yesterday reported consumer inflation accelerated

to 0.8 percent in June, the fastest pace since September 2005.

Also supporting the greenback, crude oil fell below $120 a barrel

for the first time since May. The euro-dollar exchange rate and

oil have had a correlation of 0.9 in the past year, according to

Bloomberg calculations. A reading of 1 would mean they

moved in lockstep.

The Fed will keep its target rate for overnight loans between

banks at 2 percent today, according to the median forecast

of economists in a separate Bloomberg News survey. The

decision will be announced at 2:15 p.m. in Washington.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 32 percent

chance yesterday the Fed will raise its 2 percent target rate

for overnight lending between banks by at least a quarter

point at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on

Sept. 16, compared with 38 percent a week earlier.

The contracts showed a 65 percent chance the Fed

will increase the rate by December, almost the same

odds as a week earlier.