UPDTAES ON JULY 30 2008

JULY 30 WEDNESDAY

Yen Trades Near 1-Month Low as Japan Investors Seek High Yield .

The yen traded near a one-month low against the dollar

on speculation Japanese investors will invest their summer

bonuses in overseas assets offering higher yields.

Japan's currency traded at 108.05 per dollar at 6:45 a.m. in

London from 108.11 in New York yesterday, when it fell

to 108.29, the weakest level since June 25. The yen was also

at 168.45 per euro from 168.53. The dollar traded at

$1.5587 per euro from $1.5588 yesterday, when it climbed

to $1.5554, the strongest level since June 25.

The Bank of Japan's target lending rate of 0.5 percent is the

lowest among industrialized economies, making assets

outside of the country more attractive to domestic

investors.

The dollar may rise for a second day against the euro after

crude oil dropped to a 12-week low of $120.42 a barrel

yesterday, helping drive U.S. stocks higher. The euro-dollar

exchange rate and oil had a correlation of 0.9 in the past

year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the

correlation of their value changes. A reading of 1 would

mean they moved in lockstep.

U.S. companies cut 60,000 jobs in July, following a reduction of

79,000 in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of

economists before a report from ADP Employer Services

at 8:15 a.m. New York time. Non-farm payrolls, due on

Aug. 1 from the Labor Department, dropped by 75,000

following a decline of 62,000 in June, according to a

separate survey.

UPDATES ON JULY 29 2008

JULY 29 TUESDAY

Dollar Trades Near 1-Week Low Against Euro Before Housing Data .

The dollar traded near a one-week low against the euro on

speculation an industry report today will show the U.S. housing

slump deepened, increasing the risk credit-market losses

will widen.

The dollar traded at $1.5746 per euro at 6:32 a.m. in London,

from $1.5741 late yesterday in New York and near a July 23

low of $1.5798. The U.S. currency weakened to 107.37 yen

from 107.46 yesterday, and to C$1.0213 against the

Canadian dollar from C$1.0226. The euro slid to

169.09 yen from 169.17.

U.S. stocks and the dollar fell yesterday even after U.S.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called for banks to use

covered bonds more extensively to finance mortgages. Such

bonds require lenders to make good on payments in the

event that homeowners default. The U.S. mortgage market

currently depends on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other

government-linked institutions for more than 70 percent of funds.

Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 75,000 in July, following a

decline of 62,000 in June, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The Labor Department will release the employment data Aug. 1.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed yesterday a

38 percent chance the Fed will increase its 2 percent target

rate for overnight lending between banks by at least a

quarter- percentage point by Sept. 16, compared with

41 percent odds a week earlier. Policy makers

next meet Aug. 5.

Gains in the yen may be limited after government reports

showed Japan's unemployment rate rose to the highest

in almost two years in June and household spending fell,

adding to signs the economy's longest postwar

expansion may be coming to an end.

UPDTAES ON JULY 18 2008

JULY 18 FRIDAY

Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain as Banks Weather Credit

Turmoil .

The dollar headed for a weekly advance against the euro,

rebounding from a record low on signs U.S. investment

banks will withstand credit-market losses arising from

the nation's subprime mortgage collapse.

The U.S. currency also rose versus the pound on speculation the

U.K. government will boost borrowing as Chancellor of the

Exchequer Alistair Darling introduces new spending guidelines.

The yen was set for a weekly loss against the South African

rand as a rally in U.S. stocks following

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s better-than-expected earnings

encouraged so-called carry trades.

The dollar rose to $1.5855 per euro at 2:28 p.m. in Tokyo

from $1.5863 late yesterday and $1.5938 at the end of

last week. It hit an all-time low of $1.6038 on July 15.

The currency was at 106.26 yen from 106.28 yen, little

changed from a week ago.

Global banks and securities firms have reported losses and

writedowns of $436 billion related to subprime loans to U.S

homeowners with poor credit, weighing on both stocks and

the nation's currency this year.

Still, cheaper oil is helping support the greenback against

the euro. Crude oil for August delivery is set for a record

weekly drop in dollar terms, having lost more than $14 a

barrel since July 11 in New York.

The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the

same direction 90 percent of the time during the past year,

according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation

of their value changes.

UPDATES ON JULY 16 2008

JULY 16 WEDNESDAY

Dollar Trades Near Record Low as U.S. Banks May Report Losses .

The dollar traded near a record low against the euro on

speculation U.S. banks will report further losses this week,

eroding confidence in the financial system of the world's

largest economy.

The U.S. currency was also near a six-week low versus the yen .

The dollar traded at $1.5897 per euro at 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo,

after touching $1.6038 yesterday, the weakest since the

15- nation currency's 1999 debut. The dollar bought 104.64

yen, after reaching 104.16 yesterday, the lowest since June 3.

Japan's currency traded at 166.35 per euro from 166.65.

The dollar may fall to $1.5920 versus the euro and

104.40 yen today.

Federal funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a

7 percent chance that the Fed will increase the 2 percent

target lending rate at its Aug. 5 meeting, compared with

77 percent odds a month ago.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the

currencies of six U.S. trading partners, fell for a sixth day,

dropping 0.2 percent to 71.71.

The U.S. currency has given up most of the gains made

versus the euro since July 3.

It has since slumped 1.2 percent on concern that losses at

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will deepen.

Investors increased net long positions on the U.S. currency

to a four-month high of 105,990 contracts, and on the

euro to a five-month high of 20,869 contracts. A long

position is a bet that an asset price will rise.

The U.S. currency is poised to slide as the relative

strength index, a comparison of the magnitude of gains

and losses, shows the dollar is losing momentum.

The dollar's 14-day relative strength index against the yen,

was 37.3 today, down from 46.4 on July 14 and

51.6 a week ago.

UPDATES ON JULY 15 2008

JULY 15 TUESDAY

Dollar Falls on Concern Credit-Market Losses Will Damp Growth .

The dollar fell against the yen and euro on speculation Federal Reserve

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary

Henry Paulson will tell lawmakers credit-market losses will

weigh on U.S. economic growth.

The currency declined to a 25-year low versus the Australian

dollar on concern confidence in the debt of Fannie Mae and

Freddie Mac will deteriorate even after the U.S. government

pledged support for the two-largest buyers of home loans.

The yen remained higher after the Bank of Japan kept

interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent today, the lowest

among major economies.

The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark overnight lending rate unchanged .

U.S. stocks fell yesterday, led by financial shares, after the

government's seizure of Pasadena, California-based IndyMac

Bancorp Inc. and predictions of wider credit losses overshadowed

Paulson's pledge to shore up Fannie and Freddie.

Global banks and securities firms have reported losses of about

$400 billion as the subprime-mortgage market collapsed.

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which

tracks the greenback against the currencies of six U.S. trading

partners, traded at 71.783 today from 71.915 yesterday.

JULY 11 2008

JULY 11 FRIDAY

Dollar Heads for Weekly Loss Versus Euro Before

Confidence Data .

The dollar headed for a weekly loss against the euro on

speculation a report today will show U.S. consumer

confidence fell to a 28-year low, signaling the Federal

Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates this year.

The dollar traded at $1.5772 per euro as of 1:36 p.m. in

Tokyo from $1.5788 in New York yesterday, when it fell

to $1.5801, the weakest since July 3. It ended last week

at $1.5706. The U.S. currency was at 107.18 yen from

107.07 yen yesterday and 106.80 yen a week ago. The

euro traded at 169.05 yen from 169.05 yen yesterday

and 167.73 yen on July 4.

The dollar pared losses after the New York Times reported

U.S. officials are considering plans to take over one or

both of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The government is

discussing placing them in a conservatorship, under which

their losses would be covered by taxpayers, the Times said,

citing unidentified officials briefed on the matter.


Crude oil traded near $142 a barrel after rising 4.6 percent


yesterday, the biggest gain since June 6, as Iran test- fired

more missiles in the Persian Gulf.

The euro-dollar exchange rate and oil have moved in the

same direction 90 percent of the time during the past year,

according to Bloomberg calculations based on the correlation

of their value changes.

UPDATES ON JULY 10 2008

JULY 10 THURSDAY

Dollar Is Little Changed Before Bernanke, Paulson Testimony .

The dollar was little changed against the euro before

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and U.S.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson address U.S. law

makers on their response to widening credit-market

losses.

The U.S. dollar fell against Australia's currency as traders

increased bets the Fed will keep interest rates on hold

through 2008, boosting the appeal of higher-yielding

assets. The British pound declined on speculation the

Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged today

to curb inflation, increasing the risk that the economy will

enter a recession.

The dollar traded at $1.5725 per euro at 12:38 p.m. in Tokyo

from $1.5743 yesterday in New York. The U.S. currency bought

106.87 yen from 106.76. The yen was at 168.04 per euro from

168.06.

The pound fell to $1.9815 from $1.9832. Against the euro

, it was little changed at 79.36 pence.

The dollar has fallen 11 percent against the euro since

September, when the Fed made the first of seven reductions

in its target lending rate to avert a recession. Futures

contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show the odds that

policy makers will keep borrowing costs unchanged this year

rose to 32 percent from 7 percent a month ago.

Traders yesterday increased bets the ECB will raise

borrowing costs again to curtail 4 percent annual inflation

that is twice the central bank's 2 percent target. The implied

rate on the December Euribor interest-rate futures contract

rose 0.02 percentage point to 5.12 percent.

UPDATES ON JULY 9 2008

Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen After Iran Test-Fires Missile .

The dollar declined against the yen and euro after Iran's

state television said the nation test- fired a long-range

missile capable of reaching Israel.

The yen and the Swiss franc strengthened on speculation

the missile test signals that international political tensions

will keep escalating, spurring investors to buy assets in

nations that are perceived as safer.

The dollar fell to 107.05 yen as of 2:25 p.m. in Tokyo from

107.50 yen late in New York yesterday. It also weakened to

$1.5716 versus the euro compared with $1.5670 yesterday.

Japan's currency climbed to 168.24 versus the euro from

168.45 in New York yesterday. The Swiss franc advanced to

1.0282 versus the dollar from 1.0337.

UPDATES ON JULY 8 2008

The dollar may strengthen to 108.58 yen, said Eiji Kinouchi, chief

technical analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research, citing charts

traders use to predict price movements.

The U.S. currency's 13-week moving average against the yen

last week rose above the 26-week moving average, a pattern

called a ``golden cross,'' which is a bullish signal, Tokyo- based

Kinouchi said. The 13-week moving average is currently at

104.89 yen and the 26-week moving average is at 104.64,

according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The target of

108.58 yen will match a four-month high the dollar set

on June 16.

The dollar traded at 107.14 yen as of 11:09 a.m. in Tokyo

from 107.18 yen in New York yesterday, when it rose to

107.75, the highest level since June 26.